Saturday, October 17, 2009

THE FINAL CALL®™ - Oct 17, 2009

A very happy and joyous Diwali to all.

I have been preoccupied since last weekend with matters appearing too flimsy at the crust; however, hot at the core.  Reminds me of the huge piece of rock that we inhabit.  This seemingly inanimate piece of rock takes in all the shit (literally) from us, and yet can take more and more without flinching.  We continue to have little respect for this home that we inhabit, yet we persist in erecting and decorating marvels for our own private pleasures knowing well that it takes just a fraction of friction beneath the earths crust to knock off all these marvels!

A frenzy of Diwali noise and light greets me as I write.  The air has suddenly become too chemical, not that it was any great before the sound and light erupted.  Having just gotten back to civilization after a week or more, ones olfactory instincts immediately go into spectrometric analysis of the air that was and the air that is now.  The gases that exist around our planet should be billions of eons old, yet they are so fresh and exotically scented in and around civilization that is not yet polluted by cement and steel.  As you pass through this virgin land, one is presented with an aroma of scents that keeps refreshing at every turn and every corner.  You can even smell the water that drips down from the thick vegetation above in the forests as well as the aroma of water that is locked up in huge earthen dams around these forests.  It is mother nature at its original best.  The need to appreciate the goodness of life is the very food that kindles the instinct to survive and if one survives but has never appreciated the goodness of life, then one has survived in vain only to bite the dust!

Coming back to our wealth management setups, the past three weeks in this settlement had ones patience tested to the limits.  The Nifty just oscillated 100 points up and down 5K doing nothing good to anybody in the bargain.  It was a lackluster muhurat trading day today and Udayan rightly called it symbolic.  However, we have taken short positions today on the Nifty Futures and the setup does look bearish on a weekly scale.  Monday is a holiday and we relook our setup on Tuesday.  No Equity positions.

US markets and other global markets look all set to cool off, and if they do, this will trigger a healthy correction  on the Sensex and Nifty too.  We hold no positions on the US markets.

However, again, India is already in a bull market and the correction would be just the usual bull market corrections and not deep enough to warrant panic or trigger liquidation of portfolios.  This position would invalidate itself in the event of a global catastrophe.

A couple of links I found interesting.
Think Twice:  How people are fooled by  irrelevant data.
Did you know that at the craps tables in Las Vegas, on average, when someone wants a higher number, they throw the dice hard, and when they want a low number, they give it a gentle toss? I found that to be an amusing example of the illusion of control in a case where humans have no control.
The Greatest depression is coming.
We are in the opening stages of the Greatest Depression, a term coined by Trends Forecast founder Gerald Celente. The next stage, as Mr. Celente has said, will be “like nothing we've ever seen in our life time.
Robert Prechter's "Conquer the Crash," A forecast that is still coming true.
...the number one precaution to take at the start of a deflationary crash is to make sure that your investment capital is not invested in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures or any other equity-based investment.

Excellent bearish setups!  As Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says, on a day to day basis we are coupled with global markets; however, over a larger perspective, we are decoupled.  He goes on to add, once upon a time the sensex was 3000 and the Dow was 10,000.  Today the Dow is 10,000 and the Sensex is 17,000.  As the depression unfolds in the US, we need to catch up on how it will affect our day to day lives.  Lets hope, we survive!

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